Given the situation prevailing in Burundi and considering the latest political developments, there is no doubt that President Nkurunziza wants to shuffle the deck and, above all, assert his dominance. His parallel army, the Imbonerakure, is patrolling the territory from East to West and from North to South in a show of force and an effort to establish state-sponsored terrorism.
According to their war cries and rallying chants, they are searching for irreducibles (Intumva) and hypothetical troublemakers (Injavyi) to “bring them to reason.” They flood the country with war songs, reminiscent of the infamous Rwandan militias, the Interahamwe, who committed the unthinkable (genocide) in Rwanda in 1994.
Everything appears coordinated and carefully orchestrated to instill fear and create a sense of panic that would discourage any potential protest when President Nkurunziza eventually announces his reversal on not running in the 2020 elections. It would be enough for him to claim—something already being prepared—that he was “begged” by the people, the sole holders of national sovereignty (a well-known ploy), to reign indefinitely over Burundi. His party’s militants are already singing about it, brainwashing efforts are underway, and soon, this scenario will be accepted as natural and normal.
No one should be surprised because everything about the Supreme Leader of Bujumbura is a theatrical act. The letter he wrote to President Museveni on December 4, 2018—where he exchanged the EAC summit on Burundi, which he himself boycotted on November 30, for another summit he fabricated from scratch, setting its agenda himself and scheduling it for December 27—is nothing short of astonishing.
This distraction is particularly troubling as it comes at a time when there was still hope that the rescheduled December 27 summit, set as a last resort, mattered to him. But that was underestimating Nkurunziza’s seasoned balancing act, which continuously outmaneuvers international actors interested in the Burundian issue. Instead, he has been placing obstacles in the path of reconciliation among Burundians for over three years—blocking the peace dialogue after the crisis he personally provoked and maintained in 2015.
The recent arrest and imprisonment of four retired senior officers, along with the issuance of international arrest warrants, with former President Pierre Buyoya at the top of the list, is yet another strategy to prove that he alone is capable of taking down the supposed assassins of President Ndadaye. However, he conveniently forgets that, in normal circumstances, it is not his role to administer justice. He also forgets that when negotiations were held with him—even though he had been sentenced to death by Burundian courts—it was not because the country’s judiciary was less effective back then. It was a difficult yet understandable compromise for the sake of peace.
One might also wonder: why did he wait thirteen years to address the case of President Ndadaye’s assassination? Even if we were to give him the benefit of the doubt, as the saying goes, “Better late than never,” why, if he truly wanted to be the unifying leader he claims to be, did he not direct the judiciary (which is often manipulated in Burundi) to investigate and arrest the perpetrators of the numerous and heinous massacres that followed Ndadaye’s assassination?
The Arusha Agreement had provided for two mechanisms—one judicial and the other non-judicial—to address these cases. However, both the current regime and its predecessor failed to implement them for reasons unknown. Had these mechanisms been established, Burundi could have had real justice. But an important point must be emphasized: since Nkurunziza now seems inspired by Themis, the goddess of justice, should he not also avoid establishing a two-speed justice system? Should he not publicly revisit his own case, in which he was a candidate for the death penalty for destroying lives and property in Bujumbura in 1996 using anti-tank mines while fighting the then-government as a rebel?
And as if this pattern were set in stone, the ruling party’s supporters—who are the only ones allowed to protest—will celebrate this “achievement” with slogans openly targeting Buyoya and Kagame, whom they accuse of preparing chaos for Burundi. Once again, it is impossible to determine the exact root of this agitation. What is clear, however, is the government’s determination to mark its territory and to ethnicize a conflict that has now spiraled beyond its control. The underlying message to its supporters could be summed up as follows: “We are the masters of the Great Lakes region. Your worst enemies are in our crosshairs. Support our liberation initiative without hesitation.”
The only problem for him is that, at this point, all three ethnic groups—Hutus, Tutsis, and Twas—are united in their resolve to finally rid themselves of the divisive rhetoric promoted by Nkurunziza. They have suffered enough from his brand of ethnic divisionism to understand that not only is it toxic, but it is also destroying their beloved country.
Meanwhile, Kigali’s silence raises questions. Rwanda seems to be observing the situation, perhaps waiting for the EAC’s reaction, which is likely in a state of total confusion. The real problem remains unresolved, and Nkurunziza appears to be dismissing Burundi’s crisis entirely, attempting to sidestep it by making his participation in the December 27 summit conditional on adding the so-called Burundi-Rwanda conflict to the agenda.
But playing tough for too long can eventually backfire. The question remains: will the mediator’s letter mark a turning point?
Done in Ottawa on December 12, 2018
© The Alliance of Burundians in Canada, ABC